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The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

Author:
  • Owen L. Petchey
  • Mikael Pontarp
  • Thomas M. Massie
  • Sonia Kéfi
  • Arpat Ozgul
  • Maja Weilenmann
  • Gian Marco Palamara
  • Florian Altermatt
  • Blake Matthews
  • Jonathan M. Levine
  • Dylan Z. Childs
  • Brian J. Mcgill
  • Michael E. Schaepman
  • Bernhard Schmid
  • Piet Spaak
  • Andrew P. Beckerman
  • Frank Pennekamp
  • Ian S. Pearse
Publishing year: 2015-01-01
Language: English
Pages: 597-611
Publication/Series: Ecology Letters
Volume: 18
Issue: 7
Document type: Journal article
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell

Abstract english

Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development.

Keywords

  • Dynamics
  • Ecosystems
  • Environmental change
  • Forecasting
  • Futures
  • Prediction
  • Scenarios

Other

Published
  • ISSN: 1461-023X
Mikael Pontarp
E-mail: mikael [dot] pontarp [at] biol [dot] lu [dot] se

Researcher

Evolutionary ecology

Sölvegatn 37, Lund

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