Lund University is celebrating 350 years. Read more on lunduniversity.lu.se

Menu

Javascript is not activated in your browser. This website needs javascript activated to work properly.
You are here

Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence

Quality assurance in ecosystem service predictions

This project aims to facilitate quality evaluation of scientific-based evidense for environmental management under uncertainty. Incomplete knowledge and conflicting objectives turn environmental management into complex decision problems. Quantitative assessments promote transparent production of evidence. Quality of evidence depends on qualitative aspects of uncertainty (the epistemic situation) like weak bases for inference, low confidence in model predictions, or extent of subjective (expert) knowledge. It is not enough to assure quality of evidence based on quality of underlying empirical studies. We propose to merge principles of quantitative risk assessment, treatment of knowledge-based uncertainty and statistical interference into a decision theory for quality evaluation of scientific-based evidence under uncertainty.

Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence fig. 1.

We will 1) clarify the meaning of quality f evidence, 2) integrate qualitative and quantitative uncertainties into quantitative assessments and 3) test the theory´s feasibility to evaluate quality of evidence. The decision theory will be tested on a case study on evidencebased management of pollination ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes, considering effects on farmers and societal risks, and for which data and models are available. Testing will be made on evidence from three managment problems with decreasing strength of the epistemic situation created by extrapolating from the scale of observations in space to a landscape and into the future.

Scaling up uncertain environmental evidence fig. 2.
Page Manager:

Downloads & links

Workshop on Bayesian Networks for risk assessment and decision making

You most welcome to attend a workshop on Bayesian Networks in risk assessment and decision making in Lund March 28 and 29th, 2017. The event…

Studentprojekt: Tuggummin som en indikator för nedskräpning i urbana miljöer

Studenter sökes för ett projekt under våren 2017 Detta projekt går ut på att ta reda på hur förekomst av tuggummin förhåller sig till föreko…